Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these laws. Yet, a recent study [1] showed that ETAS model fails to reproduce significant long-term characteristics found real catalogs. Here we modify generalize include short- triggering mechanisms, account for long-time (exponents) discovered data. Our generalized accurately reproduces long-term/distance observed Italian Southern Californian The revised also improve after large shocks.